Math may be great and all that, but in the end it is a tool that has its limitations. Take linear regression analysis, for instance. You pick a starting point. You have an ending point. The math shows you the rise and run of a potential trend. But how do you know if this is what will happen?
You don’t, of course because there are so many variables that should be considered but are not in the equation. Such is the risk I took on a blog post predicting the credit union industry by 2025. Sure I think it’s safe to say we will have many few organizations (sadly enough) but those that are left will be significantly larger than what they are today. But when does this trend line bend the other way? At some point the resources of a larger credit union will make it more competitive and less likely to go away.
Will it be at the $500 million average asset size? Could be.